Market analysis

Cautious Optimism Returns: What It Means for Big Law Hiring in the U.S. and Abroad

The Vargas Partners Team8 min read

After more than a year of uncertainty in global deal-making, a subtle but important shift is taking place: cautious optimism is returning to the legal industry. Transaction pipelines are beginning to reopen, client confidence is stabilizing, and many law firms, particularly in the U.S. and key international markets, are quietly preparing to rebuild leaner teams left stretched by months of headcount freezes and attrition.

But this isn't 2021, when firms were hiring in a blanket frenzy across almost all practice groups. In 2025, firms are hiring more strategically, with certain practice areas being in higher demand than others. But, even busy practice groups are being deliberate in their hiring, with an emphasis on the "cautious" part of optimism.

From retrenchment to repositioning

In 2023, Big Law hiring hit a slowdown not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. Corporate teams were trimmed, hiring paused, and lateral moves slowed to a crawl. Even powerhouse sectors like private equity and M&A saw sharp declines in activity.

Now, as interest rates stabilize and dealmakers regain their footing, law firms are cautiously signaling readiness to grow again, but on new terms. Rather than simply backfilling roles or chasing headcount numbers, firms are focusing on:

01

High-value lateral midlevel associates that bring significant "deal quarterbacking" experience. Those are the associates that tend to add the most value, especially in hot and active practice areas.

02

Junior-to-midlevel associates in areas like project finance, secondaries / fund formation, and certain regulatory practice groups. Junior associates tend to get hired most when practice areas are super active, and fund formation (particularly secondaries) and finance / projects are seeing high enough levels of activity to support junior hiring.

03

Sector-specific demand, such as energy (including energy transition), life sciences, digital infrastructure / data centers, and AI / data privacy.

U.S. market outlook: strategic, selective hiring

In many US markets, including New York, both BigLaw and boutique firms are seeking associates that can demonstrate grit, a strong work ethic, and real technical ability. Associates should expect multiple rounds of interviews where their technical skills are tested. This means that they should review their deal / matters lists and come armed with 2–3 key matters or projects that they've worked on which are either relevant to the role they're interviewing for, or demonstrate a "leveling up" of their skill set.

Partners are also probing a lot deeper into the "why" of a lateral candidate's search. To some extent, this is to weed out candidates that might be lower performers at their current firms, but lateral hiring in the US is particularly competitive, and partners can afford to probe deeper into an associate's real motivations for leaving their current practice.

It's also vital for associates who have made prior lateral moves to articulate clearly why they made each move. Your reasons will be scrutinized, and you should work with your recruiter on crafting a solid "why" for each of your moves, including the one you're now trying to make.

"Firms are thinking of each new attorney as an investment in their practice, not a 'butt in the seat' to execute deals in the short term."

Global trends: London, the Middle East, and Asia

Outside the U.S., cautious optimism is also taking hold in regionally distinct ways:

London

Increased demand for US-qualified associates for select corporate roles, including US Capital Markets and US-oriented EC / VC teams.

Middle East

Gulf-based offices, especially in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, are actively hiring for roles in project finance, capital markets, and infrastructure. While associate hiring in the region remains relatively limited, these offices mainly seek lawyers qualified in English law — though they also occasionally consider U.S.-qualified attorneys from Texas, given their strong experience in project-focused work.

Asia

While Hong Kong remains quiet, Singapore is heating up, with a focus on project finance, M&A, and fund formation hiring tied to regional investment flows. India has also been a major driver of growth in the APAC region across all practice groups.

What jobseekers should know

For associates weighing a move in this climate, the return of cautious optimism offers real opportunity, but also requires expert guidance from a trusted career advisor.

Timing matters

For junior associates (class of 2023 or 2024), waiting until Q4 can be useful, as the closer one gets to their 3rd year, the more marketable they tend to be. While we're seeing increased openings for Class of 2023s, they tend to be concentrated in practice groups like finance (including project finance) or niches like fund formation (and even fund finance), where there is high demand. M&A and capital markets hiring is still concentrated on mid-level associates.

If you're aiming to leave your current firm after your bonus hits, consider timing. If you get your bonus at the end of December, start your search in early September, or even in August. If your bonus is paid out in January or February, it's okay to delay starting a search until the end of September or early October.

For mid-levels, specialization counts

While certain practice areas like EC / VC lend themselves to a generalist skill set, most roles for mid-levels and up require the associate to have a mid-level "fluency" in their practice group. We have seen 4th–6th year candidates with otherwise strong credentials (Vault 10 law firm, top 10 law school) get rejected without an interview because their resume doesn't demonstrate a level of experience commensurate with their class year.

Global mobility is back

As optimism returns to Big Law lateral hiring more generally, mobility, whether across state lines or more global borders — tends to also increase. Firms might not be able to rely on their local talent pool for lateral associates. Smaller lateral hiring markets like APAC or the Middle East are more likely to look outside their local talent pools for associate hires, though personal or family ties to regions are key.

Final thought

The cautious optimism of 2025 has not yet translated into the explosive hiring of 2021, and it may never. BigLaw firms and boutiques are looking at each potential hire in a disciplined fashion, thinking of each new attorney as an investment in their practice as opposed to a "butt in the seat" that can help execute deals in the short-term.

Candidates are seeing multiple interviews, and even multiple offers, but they have to be diligent and purposeful about their targets, and have a purposeful and unique "why" for each opportunity they seek.

Timing your move matters.
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