At the start of the year, 2024 looked like an extension of the lateral hiring winter of 2023. We were mostly proved right. Aside from a very small (like count-on-two-fingers small) number of firms whose global managements are leaning heavily into Southeast Asia, 2024 was a very challenging lateral hiring climate for Asia-based or Asia-minded associates, especially US-qualified ones.
Asia's lateral hiring woes stand in contrast to the US lateral hiring market, which finally found its footing after a 2-year slump. According to data collected by the National Association of Law Placement (NALP), U.S. law firm lateral hiring was up 14% in 2024 after two years of declines as of March 26, 2025.
Much of the lateral growth reported by NALP, which tracks non-entry level attorney hires at firms, was fueled by lateral associate hiring, which increased 25% over 2023. Lateral partner hiring, generally less prone to market shifts than associate hiring, was up by 2% in 2024.
2024 also saw a mass exodus of law firms from Asia-Pac. As of March 2025, nearly 20 U.S. firms have shuttered at least one office in mainland China since the pullout began in 2024. One of the most notable closings was Skadden's surprise exit from Shanghai. "Shifting market dynamics have led us to the decision to begin winding down our operations in Shanghai and rescale our China corporate practice," the firm said in a statement. As expected, layoffs across all of Skadden's greater China offices, mostly concentrated in their once-vaunted China Corporate team — accompanied the office closure.
Takeaway one
China chaos is mostly behind us
While there will likely be more firms quietly shutting their doors in China this year, the dust has largely settled and a sense of optimism has returned. Firms that hurt the most were those that conflated Asia-Pac with greater China, and saw Asia as a one-trick Chinese pony.
The firms that are most optimistic are either (1) adapting to the new competitive market (i.e. lower fees, and how to remain profitable despite being more flexible on fee structure) or (2) have secured a strong enough foothold in multiple Asia-Pac markets outside greater China that they can afford to keep servicing their white-shoe clientele without much of a dent to their bottom line.
"Firms that hurt the most were those that conflated Asia-Pac with greater China, and saw Asia as a one-trick Chinese pony."
Takeaway two
Not all APAC markets are equally affected
One of the macro trends affecting Asia over the past few years has been the shift of focus away from China and toward Southeast Asia. Financial institutions, PE funds, and global corporates have all sought to reduce their exposure to greater China as geopolitical tensions and the PRC's "zero COVID" strategy have chilled dealmaker sentiment. In contrast, a growing middle class and supply chain diversification are among the many factors that helped boost interest in Southeast Asia.
The past few years even saw the opening of several new BigLaw offices in Singapore (e.g., Goodwin, Ropes, Greenberg Traurig, Orrick) as well as partners relocating from Hong Kong to Singapore to help capture South and Southeast Asia dealflow.
Firms are now viewing Singapore as the hub of non-PRC Asia as opposed to a regional Southeast Asian center. Multiple firms' Singapore offices work closely with their Seoul and Tokyo teams, and practices in Singapore can cover a wide range of geographies outside of South and Southeast Asia.
The big growth story of Singapore is its nexus to the India market. India is booming, and many law firms in Asia want a foothold in Singapore to capture India dealflow. Singapore is also a hotbed for both technology and energy / infrastructure deals, with digital infrastructure experience being highly prized.
Takeaway three
Not all practice groups are equally affected
Partners with books of business are always more attractive in downturns (for obvious reasons), and 2024–2025 are shaping up to be two of the most successful partner recruiting years that our team has had, especially in APAC. In 2024, the bright spots in an otherwise dimmed lateral hiring market were project finance, energy, and anything related to digital infrastructure. We also saw some interest in fund formation and litigation associates, as well as M&A associates in practice groups that were not overly tied to greater China, such as Southeast Asia, Japan, and Korea.
Because of the thought and strategy that goes into an associate hire during a downturn, these hires are most likely to be "Goldilocks hires", neither too junior nor too senior, with a just-right deal sheet or matters list, qualifications, language skills, and tie to the region.
What's to come in 2025, our bold predictions
1. No more expat packages (mostly)
We have seen several firms back away from all-cash expat packages in markets like Hong Kong, where expat packages have been a standard component of compensation for decades. Firms who want to adapt in greater China will have to do so on fee flexibility, and this means cost-cutting elsewhere.
We may also see firms back away from paying New York / global pay to categories of lawyers who traditionally were paid the same as their counterparts in New York, as well as firms having a preference for lawyers qualified in Singapore, the UK, and Hong Kong over US-qualified lawyers.
Exceptions to this rule will be the whitest of the white-shoe firms who still want to attract top talent. We have seen at least one APAC associate offer letter in 2025 with a cash expat package, but offers from these firms will become increasingly more competitive.
2. Real APAC ties will become of highest importance
As part of their overall focus on cost-cutting, firms will want to make sure each hire is as "de-risked" as possible. This means that firms will ask associates about their ties to APAC, and the particular city they are interviewing in. Firms cannot afford to hire "wanderlust" candidates with slim Asia ties due to the realistic risk that these hires might simply not enjoy living in Asia, and decide to move elsewhere.
3. China hiring will bounce back, but India hiring will explode
I'm already getting anecdotal reports from M&A and Capital Markets associates billing 200+ hours a month in Greater China BigLaw. Firms that are likely to hire into their greater China offices are more likely to be those with an agile mindset, so do not expect the white-shoe treatment of top-of-market expat packages and New York-level compensation. All firms, however, are gearing up for a deal bonanza emerging from India, and we've already heard from multiple firms to keep an eye out for top-tier, internationally-trained BigLaw associates with India M&A, private equity, or capital markets experience.